 With added functionality to calculate the embodied carbon content (eCO2) of a range of building types the Ireland Construction Cost Database has been updated. Containing a wide range of data on construction costs, valuation, office occupation costs and tender and cost inflation predictions the updated App is a useful tool for the property and construction industry.
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 Historic and Forecast Buildup of Tender Price Changes With a building and materials cost inflation forecast of c. 4.0% through 2025 and expected labour cost increase in the range 2.5% - 3.5% in the same period I expect tender prices (for general building) to increase by up to 3.4% in 2025 based on these assumptions. This assumes that contractors hold gross margin targets of 7% given the expected level of activity in the market. With this forecast tender increase being lower than that experiences in 8 of the past 10 years it is a good time to progress projects to take advantage of current prices.
 Figure - Housing Commencements and Completions With CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) having released Q3 housing completion figures it is time to revisit where #housing output may land in 2024 (The Q3 number usually is about 20-25% of annual output).
Although with increased activity on site, low commencement in 2023 may play through to low completions in Q4. Hitting last years output levels in Q4 (always the highest quarter) may result in c31,000 completions for 2024. Far off the 40,000 mentioned recently. However, due to a jump in on-site activity this year with more homes started, 2025 should see something near 40,000 units completed all going well. Contact us at [email protected] to see how we can help you with research and data analysis needs Combining my estimate of over 50,000 hashtag#housing units to be currently on site with typical construction activity level and programme allows a forecast of what may be delivered to the end of 2024. It may be that less units are delivered this year (below 30,000) than in 2023 - mostly due to lower commencements and activity through 2023. Housing output should be higher in 2025 given commencement surge in Q2 2024 and current units in construction on site with H2 2025 completion dates.  The CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) latest population forecasts for Ireland reveal a significant demographic shift, with the over 65 population expected to approach 2 million by 2057. This demographic trend underscores the imperative for expanding healthcare infrastructure to meet the growing demand, necessitating additional #capex and #opex. While all models have inherent errors, some can provide valuable insights into the future resource requirements. The data analysis indicates a projected need of €5 billion in Capex by 2039, along with an additional €2.5 billion in annual opex for the acute healthcare estate. By 2039, operational spend the equivalent of a Children's Hospital each year will be needed to run the projected increased bed capacity. Contact us to see how we can help you with informed data driven decision making. #HealthcareInfrastructure#PopulationForecasts #Ireland2039 #Health  |
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Keogh Consulting looks to help individuals and organisations deliver the right projects the right way. Here is some of our knowledge and a few case studies that we hope will help you on your project journey. 
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