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With current uncertainty and volatility in the market it's important to review property projects and carry out a sensitivity analysis on a project's overall return by varying the original baseline assumptions. This may be particularly be the case where a project is distressed, being restructured or in advance of being offered for sale. Using as an illustrative example the case of the mixed use Camden Yard project in Dublin a sensitivity analysis should review the impact on return of as broad range of assumptions as possible in order to understand and quantify the risks in a project or ballpark what a site may be worth. Your browser does not support viewing this document. Click here to download the document.
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With current uncertainty and volatility in the market it's important to continually review property projects and ensure the original assumptions and plan still holds true. From time to time a new plan needs to be developed to relaunch a project either by carrying out an internal review or by an external team looking to take over a project. The attached approach outlines how to carry out a strategic review of a project to develop a new plan to deliver the project Your browser does not support viewing this document. Click here to download the document. With added functionality to calculate the embodied carbon content (eCO2) of a range of building types the Ireland Construction Cost Database has been updated. Containing a wide range of data on construction costs, valuation, office occupation costs and tender and cost inflation predictions the updated App is a useful tool for the property and construction industry.
With a building and materials cost inflation forecast of c. 4.0% through 2025 and expected labour cost increase in the range 2.5% - 3.5% in the same period I expect tender prices (for general building) to increase by up to 3.4% in 2025 based on these assumptions. This assumes that contractors hold gross margin targets of 7% given the expected level of activity in the market. With this forecast tender increase being lower than that experiences in 8 of the past 10 years it is a good time to progress projects to take advantage of current prices.
With CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) having released Q3 housing completion figures it is time to revisit where #housing output may land in 2024 (The Q3 number usually is about 20-25% of annual output).
Although with increased activity on site, low commencement in 2023 may play through to low completions in Q4. Hitting last years output levels in Q4 (always the highest quarter) may result in c31,000 completions for 2024. Far off the 40,000 mentioned recently. However, due to a jump in on-site activity this year with more homes started, 2025 should see something near 40,000 units completed all going well. Contact us at [email protected] to see how we can help you with research and data analysis needs |
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Keogh Consulting looks to help individuals and organisations deliver the right projects the right way. Here is some of our knowledge and a few case studies that we hope will help you on your project journey. Categories
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