 Figure - Housing Commencements and Completions With CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) having released Q3 housing completion figures it is time to revisit where #housing output may land in 2024 (The Q3 number usually is about 20-25% of annual output).
Although with increased activity on site, low commencement in 2023 may play through to low completions in Q4. Hitting last years output levels in Q4 (always the highest quarter) may result in c31,000 completions for 2024. Far off the 40,000 mentioned recently. However, due to a jump in on-site activity this year with more homes started, 2025 should see something near 40,000 units completed all going well. Contact us at [email protected] to see how we can help you with research and data analysis needs
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Combining my estimate of over 50,000 hashtag#housing units to be currently on site with typical construction activity level and programme allows a forecast of what may be delivered to the end of 2024. It may be that less units are delivered this year (below 30,000) than in 2023 - mostly due to lower commencements and activity through 2023. Housing output should be higher in 2025 given commencement surge in Q2 2024 and current units in construction on site with H2 2025 completion dates.  The CSO (Central Statistics Office Ireland) latest population forecasts for Ireland reveal a significant demographic shift, with the over 65 population expected to approach 2 million by 2057. This demographic trend underscores the imperative for expanding healthcare infrastructure to meet the growing demand, necessitating additional #capex and #opex. While all models have inherent errors, some can provide valuable insights into the future resource requirements. The data analysis indicates a projected need of €5 billion in Capex by 2039, along with an additional €2.5 billion in annual opex for the acute healthcare estate. By 2039, operational spend the equivalent of a Children's Hospital each year will be needed to run the projected increased bed capacity. Contact us to see how we can help you with informed data driven decision making. #HealthcareInfrastructure#PopulationForecasts #Ireland2039 #Health  With the latest updates from the CSO, it's essential to assess the accuracy of #housingcommission's housing demand forecast against the new population projections. The population of Ireland is projected to grow significantly, impacting the demand for services and infrastructure. Planning ahead is crucial to avoid the housing supply challenges we currently face. Accurate population modeling is key for economic planning. A reliable forecasting model with transparent assumptions is vital. Utilising simple in-house models can help validate numbers and assess output sensitivity to assumptions. The data in the attached graphics is derived from my in-house model, acknowledging that all models have limitations but can offer valuable insights.   With the head of property in the The Land Development Agency noting at the weekend that landowners are sitting on sites that can't be developed at #affordableprices it is instructive to look at the impact of current removal of levies and contributions on #viability. The removal helps viability although apartment delivery is still difficult. Additionally the Help to Buy scheme assists affordability and it's removal may increase the time required to save for buyers in many locations.
Supply side and demand side initiatives are helping to close the affordability gap and may ensure that commencements in early 2024 continue to grow past 2023 levels. However, it is hard to know whether the growth in Q1 commencements over the 2023 number was partially down to the reimposition of the levies at the end of April. |
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